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As far back as 1844, corporations began earning the status of “personhood,” eventually granting them 14th Amendment rights in 1886. This paved the way for the evolution of corporate oversight toward the domain of the court system and not that of the executive and legislative branches. In this work, he lashed out at the “business association,” his era’s version of the state-owned companies, or the precursor of the “military-industrial” complex, or in China’s case the Sovereign-Owned Enterprise . These were institutions like the British and Dutch East India companies in Smith’s time.

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Arbitrary rulemaking and politicization flourish like weeds. What does all the above have to do with antifragility and persistence? It points to a fatal flaw in an increasingly centrally-controlled fiat money system. Regardless of whether Einstein indeed ever uttered these words, the important takeaway here is that of Pareto distribution curves in exponential growth. The reason the “powerful force” of compounding growth is driven by antifragility is because it is raised by the exponent of time itself.

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This share of our savings will only grow further. But so far, there is little evidence to support that aspiration. Unfortunately, passive investing, alongside a mass investor class, is likely to only help internet platforms and capital markets centralize further. We have experienced at least a half-century of Cantillon effects that have supported asset owners in exponentially outperforming relative to income owners. The reason for this is simply due to the nature of exponential growth curves as seen in the Pareto principle. Inequality would be maintained at the very least, if not continue its asymptotic expansion.

Interest earned, in a free market, is the equilibrium price required to balance one’s time preference of consumption relative to savings. One of the oldest axioms of economics, Say’s law, observes that we are always both consumers and producers. Even as consumers, we are producers of specialized labor to accumulate resources to be used to consume at some future point.

Additionally, ESG and clean energy investment mandates further this shift, creating new products to bundle into thematic passive investment securities. Such bundles make it easier for ESG-approved companies to redirect capital away from those companies that do not fit the homogenous definitions prescribed. To be clear, there is nothing intrinsically bad about incentivizing cleaner energy and more sustainable economic practices. However, when rules for such behavior become formalized, complex, and sometimes arbitrary and naively general, they impinge upon the competitive dynamics of free markets that would accomplish such goals more effectively. Facets of this law, more colloquially known as the “80/20 rule,” are observed not just in wealth distribution, but prolifically throughout much of nature and human social environments. However, while Bitcoin’s antifragility is indeed a powerful force, it would dissolve instantaneously without decentralization.

In a previous article, I cited the above quote referring to what I perceived to be bitcoin’s ability to compound a type of accrued interest over time relative to fiat benchmarks. Today, investors have institutionalized portfolio management, packaged into strategies like 60/40 asset allocations (bonds/stocks), and slightly more volatility-adjusted strategies such as risk parity. However, this love affair with the treasury market as a diversification tool has not always been the case, especially from the perspective of global investors. The godfather of risk parity, Ray Dalio himself, just recently confirmed the view that he would rather own bitcoin than bonds. The ability of the internet companies to sustain and grow off individual resources, with extremely low detachment rates, cannot be underestimated. The unfettered expansion of passive investing does not look likely to subside any time soon.

Efficiency Is A Great Barometer Of Where We Are In The Macro Cycle

The bigger you are, the more capital you attract. Size matters, aptitude and productivity do not. This takes us back to the Pareto principle and the 80/20 rule, setting the stage for increasingly non-linear distributions of capital.

  • Such bundles make it easier for ESG-approved companies to redirect capital away from those companies that do not fit the homogenous definitions prescribed.
  • Under this façade, the costs continue to accrue, in the form of inflation, wealth and income inequality, political fissures, geopolitical instability, and declines in the quality of production, to name a few.
  • While these attributes may sound too passive or unsubstantial to have value in our “move fast and break things” world, they are the exact traits required to survive the fragility of a system dashing feverishly towards instability.
  • The reason, as you might have guessed, is because of the deterministic nature of acceptable outcomes laid out above.
  • Instead, such rules generalize the flow of investment, compensating those market participants best suited to game such a system.

We have developed technological tools that can filter the raw data and improve its informational extractability. However, these improvements are limited solely to endeavors that we are comfortable deferring to computers to manage for us. In all activities where humans still require involvement or apprehension, we are completely outmatched. On top of this, technology can be a tool, but it can also be a weapon. For every search, storage and AI tool that has helped to unbundle the noise into some semblance of a signal, there are other software tools that re-bundle the signal once again back into noise.

A Dangerous Cocktail: Why The Pareto Principle Matters

Not only is the world experiencing greater dispersion of outcomes, it is also changing at an increasingly faster pace. Raw data is pouring torrentially down upon us, overwhelming our neural capacity more each day. We are confused, overwhelmed and looking for anchors, answers, and authority.

Thus, somewhat counterintuitively perhaps, periods of maximal efficiency will precede periods of instability and upheaval. Previously, we have established LeoPrime Forex Broker Introduction the logical chain of cascading events that are required in our world’s existing model. Please check ‘EMI options’ above for more details.

It would all but complete our societal transgression from liberal democracy to social democracy, a trend that has been gradually underway, but accelerating over the past 75 years. Historical analogues are always dangerous, and each generational crossroads exhibit unique characteristics that can change the entire spectrum of outcomes. Participants will look to gain favor with the arbiter of power to attain access to that power of debt, so as to gain wealth and power themselves. Representative democracy devolves into special interest democracy. The arbiter will print more money when it suits them, and if such credit is too costly, will project the cost back across the rest of society.

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Buildings are designed to last 20 years rather than 200. Tweets share ephemeral memes instead of lasting ideas, investments are made for instant return potential rather than lasting productive impact. And interest rates have collapsed to near zero, allowing us the mathematical permission to discount the future so that it is indistinguishable from the present. This last section is essential fxopen review to our thesis, as it is the bridge that transports us from the current transitional sandwich era where we find ourselves juxtaposed between centralization and decentralization. This is the last stop on this transitional train as we push relentlessly down the path toward a more authoritarian world order. Given its level of importance in our story, it requires some more detailed explanation.

This is the battle of the 21st century, and it is of the utmost importance. As a result of the aforementioned procession of events, we are deterministically barreling toward a world in which a mass investor class is indeed ubiquitous, uniform and publicly managed. The benefits may feel terrific if not outright euphoric at the beginning of this journey, but the costs will accrue “gradually, then suddenly,” to hat tip a Parker Lewis phrase. But it’s more than a financial trade, it’s a bet for our future.

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Particularly social media, mainstream media, political propaganda and social science professions that overconfidently apply the newfound data abundance. But over time it is being appreciated just how pervasive this Pareto dynamic truly is. The corporation was originally designed to bestow greater power to the entrepreneur and decentralize power away from the state. We’ve of course seen this story time and time again throughout history, both at biological and evolutionary scales when diversity is overcome by uniform specialization, and throughout the annals of human history. This is one explanation as to why empires always eventually fall.

This has had the perverse effect of decreasing our collective ability to specialize. The stock market and nearly all financial assets in aggregate then become just a mere proxy for this “short volatility” expression. The dismantled connection of choice from the capital allocation process brought about by passive investment proliferation has implications beyond the clear destruction of price signals. A destruction of price signaling is as destructive as things can get for a capitalist system. Prices are the main form of communication we use in society to make appropriate economic decisions and choices.

As the world becomes more interconnected, relationships become more “Paretian,” and less “normal,” or mean reverting. This is because the Pareto principle has shown empirically that complex systems often demonstrate lexatrade review extremely asymmetrical distributions of effect. Effects that only magnify as the system grows larger. When there is no risk of material loss for capital, there becomes no discrimination as to how to invest it.

This is because both only address the short term motives of the current generations, rather than addressing the fundamental problems, which are structural and intergenerational in nature. And since specialization is the overarching force that leads to human innovation, we are left with a big problem for progress. The more that human ingenuity and energy can link itself without entropy to its innate will to specialize, the more information we can decrypt. This means more societal nodes, synapses and economic pathways, leading to previously unthinkable new ideas and opportunities. Taking this a step further, if we do not place any material value on resilience, how could we value antifragility at the societal level?

A feat attained through war, geopolitical victories, petrodollar arrangements, and the trade-offs of increasing consumerism and domestic debt accumulation in the U.S. to supply dollars abroad. All punctuated by a parallel hyper-financialization of our economy, with regulatory incentives to own treasuries and a global system addicted to dollar-based leverage and short of adequate collateral. Corporations were invented to be a specializing spoke of private capital, allowing for greater and more scalable division of labor.